The Burrow
Feb 18, 2026
The future of a country, from both economic and social perspectives, can be significantly impacted by its current birth rate. Everything from the future workforce and long-term economic resilience to housing demand, education planning and healthcare needs can be influenced by a region’s population size and needs.
To better understand global birthrate patterns, the health insurance comparison experts at Compare the Market developed a Birth Rate Index covering OECD countries, US states, and Australian states and territories. The index brings together key birth and fertility metrics to explore how population trends may influence future economic and social structures.
This analysis highlights where birth rate levels are generally higher and where demographic pressures may be emerging, based on consistent data signals. Birth rate figures are standardised across geographies using the best available official data; where population-wide birth rates are not available, births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 are used as a comparable measure. These findings are intended to describe broader demographic trends and encourage informed discussion, rather than to make value judgements.
We identified the highest and lowest ranking countries for growing populations to find the highest birth rate countries.
Firstly, Mexico ranked highest with an index score of 85.79, reflecting a strong birth rate per capita and a relatively low percentage of the population over 65+ (8%).
In contrast, South Korea scored the lowest with an index score of 16.60. Its fertility rate is the lowest in the dataset, with births per capita exceedingly low, too.
Here’s a snapshot of the highest-ranking countries in terms of birth rate:
The top five countries have a birth rate above 11 per 1,000 population, and an average of 1.6 births per woman, which exceeds the overall average of the entire dataset. Each country saw a birth rate increase over the last 5 years, Ireland taking the highest percentage at a notable 20.51% increase.
The lowest ranking countries overall were:
Collectively, the average birth rate per capita was 6.6, less than half of what the top countries had.
Looking beyond the highest-ranking countries, the five-year birth rate change shows that Czechia has one of the steepest increases at 29.57%, closely followed by Latvia (25.30%) and Estonia (24.84%). This is likely due to a trend largely driven by post-pandemic “bounce-back” effects, where births rebounded after couples delayed having children during periods of economic uncertainty, alongside short-term improvements in fertility among women in their 30s, as reported by Euronews.1
Ireland and Sweden have also seen a rise in their birth rates over the past five years, with Ireland at 20.51% and Sweden at 19.44%. On the contrary, Portugal is the outlier in the global view as it’s the only country that saw a national decline within the OECD dataset.
The populations are ageing in Japan and Europe. 30% of Japan’s population is over 65, with Portugal and Italy at 25%. Paired with birth rates per capita under 10, these countries may face increased pressures on healthcare and pension systems, while contending with a declining workforce that may slow down economic growth.
The US has the third-lowest birth rate change in 5 years overall at 2.58% and is 17th in the Birth Rate Index globally.
Taking a look at the birth rate by US state, we found that South Dakota ranked highest with an index score of 79.26. This state has the highest births per 1k women (65.6) and a strong fertility rate (2, compared to a national average of 1.6).
The lowest-ranked state is Vermont, with an 11.05 index score, the lowest births per 1k (42.1) and the country’s lowest fertility rate (1.3).
Here are the top-ranked US states:
The lowest-ranking states were:
The average birth rate across the lowest-ranking states is only 0.5% lower than that of the highest-ranking states. This suggests a broader nationwide decline, with 18% of the population already aged 65 and over, which may lead to increased demand for healthcare alongside potential workforce pressures in the future.
Most significantly, Nevada’s rates declined by -12.86%, and North Dakota had a -12.18% drop in the past 5 years. The lowest decline was in Connecticut at -1.76%.
Across Australia, recent reporting shows fertility remains below replacement level, with economists and demographers pointing to cost-of-living pressures, housing affordability, delayed family formation and migration-led population growth masking lower birth numbers rather than reversing them.2
Australia ranks 14th in the overall Birth Rate Index, 3 places higher than the US. Taking a deeper look into the birth rate in Australian states, the Northern Territory records the highest index score (75.84). This state has the highest births per capita (57.92) and the youngest age profile, with only 9.6% of the population aged 65 and above.
In contrast, the Australian Capital Territory sits at the lower end of the index with a 15.47 index score, and although it has a low birth rate, it has a relatively low percentage of the population 65+.
By state and territory, the highest scoring was:
Victoria has the highest positive 5-year change at 10.4%, which is 12.57% above Australia’s average. Sustained population growth can contribute to workforce expansion over time, although continued increases may place additional pressure on education and healthcare infrastructure.
The lowest-ranked states/territories:
Tasmania has the oldest age profile with 21.84% of the population aged 65+, followed by South Australia at 20.26%.
Several states have seen a softening momentum of birth rates over the 5 years, with New South Wales at -6.73%, Northern Territory at -6.16% and Western Australia at -5.81%.
Steven Spicer, Executive General Manager of Health, Life and Energy at Compare the Market AU, states, “What these birth rate trends clearly highlight is how closely population change and healthcare demand are linked. Regions experiencing higher birth rates often face increased pressure on maternity services, paediatric care and hospital capacity, while ageing populations tend to drive demand for ongoing and long-term care.”
“For individuals, this reinforces the importance of choosing the right level of health cover for their stage of life. Whether you’re planning a family, already raising children, or thinking ahead of your future family healthcare needs, taking the time to browse and compare health insurance policies can help find the cover that suits your needs, budget and life stage.”
This dataset ranks countries, US states, and Australian states and territories based on birth rate performance using four key demographic factors. Each factor’s data was collected from official public sources and normalised to a score between 0 and 1. These scores were then combined to give each location a total score out of 100, and locations were ranked from highest to lowest.
The factors used were:
Factors were weighted as follows:
These weights prioritise current birth levels while also accounting for momentum, reproductive behaviour, and demographic structure.
Indexing rules:
All data is accurate as of the most recent release available and comes from multiple official statistical sources. Rankings reflect these sources but may not capture every real-world social or cultural factor influencing birth rates.
Where birth figures were not already reported per 1,000 population, population totals were used to calculate per-capita rates.
Sources
Births per capita
Population totals (where required)
Five-year change in birth rate
Total fertility rate
Population aged 65+
All data is correct as of 19 January 2026.