Recoveries continue at an ‘uneven pace’
So far in 2021, many economies have started to recover, and are even back above where they were before anyone had even heard of the coronavirus. According to the OECD6:
“Gross domestic product (GDP) of the G20 area returned to pre-pandemic level in the first quarter of 2021, growing by 0.8% compared with the fourth quarter of 2020. However, this figure conceals large differences across countries.”
“Among the G20 economies, India, Turkey and China, whose GDP was already above pre-pandemic levels in the previous quarter, continued their recovery, by 2.1%, 1.7% and 0.6%, respectively (after 9.3%, 1.7% and 2.6% in the previous quarter).
“GDP in Australia, Korea and Brazil also returned to pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2021, with GDP growing by 1.8%, 1.7% and 1.2%, respectively.”.
In its Economic Outlook for 2021,7 the OECD found that while countries like China and Turkey have already recovered to their pre-pandemic GDP per capita (dividing the total GDP by its population) or above, other countries like Argentina might take until as far away as 2025.
“Countries that have been quick to vaccinate their population against COVID-19 and that are managing to control infections through effective public health strategies are seeing their economies recover more quickly,” it said.
“But while vaccination rates are progressing well in many advanced economies, poorer and emerging-market countries are being left behind. Unless everyone is protected, no one is protected.
“Governments should use all resources necessary to speed up vaccination throughout the world. They should maintain targeted income support for people and firms until economies can fully reopen and invest in digital and green transformation.”