After years of power bill pain, relief could finally be on the way with Australia’s safety net, DMO and VDO electricity prices forecast to fall in some jurisdictions for the first time in six years. 

New analysis from Compare the Market shows those benchmarks generally trended down into 2021-22, before surging as the war in Ukraine sent global energy markets into turmoil. In most states, the benchmark has climbed sharply since. 

Pricing benchmark changes over time 

Analysis by Compare the Market based on benchmark pricing data from the Australian Energy Regulator and the Essential Services Commission DMO & VDO final determination reports 2019 to 2025/26 and draft determinations for 2026/27.  

Regional NSW and outer western Sydney have seen the biggest increases, with pricing up between $691 to $784 since 2019. 

Current pricing proposals show that some regions could see a reduction in their benchmarks for the first time in six years. The most generous discounts are slated for the Essential Energy and Energex regions, where the benchmark could fall by more than $200. 

The projected easing could mean much needed dollars back in billpayers’ pockets. But experts warn inflationary pressures and rising distribution costs could reverse those projected savings. 

Default offers were designed as a safety net to protect customers who failed to seek out cheaper offers, and to discourage retailers from charging excessive prices to those who stayed put. 

They also act as a reference point for people comparing plans from different retailers, making it easier to discern what offers provide the best value. 

Latest projections for 2026/27 suggest the Default Market Offer – covering New South Wales, South East Queensland and South Australia – could fall for the first time in six years, potentially delivering hundreds of dollars in relief for around 500,000 households. 

Victoria’s benchmark, the Victorian Default Offer, is also projected to fall – affecting around 348,000 homes, or about 12% of bill payers. 

But Compare the Market Economic Director David Koch said clouds have already gathered over those forecast falls in the short time since the drafts were released. 

“It’s a different world to the one these pricing projections were made in,” Mr Koch said. “In the past two months, we have seen a new war wreak total havoc on the global economy, forcing up fuel prices and interest rates. 

“We have also heard from energy retailers that the cost of distribution – maintaining the poles and wires – has also been increasing. A lot of signs point to potentially a much less generous price change. If the projected price dips do go ahead, it certainly would be a nice surprise.” 

Mr Koch said the message remains to shop around for better value.  

“If you’re on a benchmark standing offer plan, you’re already paying more than you need to,” Mr Koch said. “They are the “safety net” plan, but they’re certainly not the greatest deals.” 

“Putting in ten minutes of legwork and running a comparison while you’re on the train to work or sitting in front of the tele could help you stretch those savings even more.” 

Energy regulators are expected to release their final determination on the Default Market Offer and Victorian Default Offer before the end of May. 

Annual changes in the Default Market Offer 

*Based on a residential flat rate tariff without a controlled load from benchmark pricing data from the Australian Energy Regulator DMO final determination reports 2019 to 2025/26 and draft determination for 2026/27  

Annual changes in the Victorian Default Offer 

*Based on a residential flat rate tariff without a controlled load from benchmark pricing data from the Essential Services Commission VDO final determination reports 2019 to 2025/26 and draft determination for 2026/27