Energy regulators have today projected that electricity prices could decrease by as much as 10.1% from 1 July for some Australians on default offers.

The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) released a draft decision for the Default Market Offer, projecting price decreases across South East Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia from 1 July.

Similarly, the Essential Services Commission (ESC), which sets Victorian Default Offer pricing in Victoria, released a draft decision last week, with individual pricing changes expected for the five electricity distribution zones across the state from 1 July. The ESC anticipates that prices could fall by an average of 3% across Victoria from 1 July.

Compare the Market’s Economic Director David Koch said the drafts were a reminder that Australians still need to take back the power to lower their electricity bills.

“It boggles my mind when people stay loyal to their electricity retailers – especially when there are often cheaper deals available,” Mr Koch said. “With price changes on the horizon, now’s the time to line your ducks in a row and ensure you’re not being stung with higher prices. Regardless of who your retailer is, you’re still being supplied with the same electricity at the power socket. And looking for a better deal has never been so important, with the government already confirming that we won’t be receiving an energy rebate to shield us from higher prices this year.”

The AER’s draft recommends that the average annual household electricity bill for residential customers without a controlled load on the Default Market Offer (DMO) decrease by a year-on-year average of:

• -$90 ($4.6%) in NSW Ausgrid distribution network (Sydney/Newcastle/Hunter Valley region): proposed price $1,875
• -$64 (2.7%) in NSW Endeavour distribution network (Wollongong/Lithgow down to Ulladulla): proposed price $2,347
• -$226 (8.2%) in NSW Essential distribution network (rest of NSW): proposed price $2515
• -$216 (10.1%) in QLD’s Energex distribution network (SE QLD): proposed price $1,927
• -$31 (1.3%) in South Australia’s SA Power Networks distribution network (South Australia): $2,270

A time-of-use annual price has also been introduced for the 2026-27 financial year, which is proposed to be:

• $1,886 in NSW Ausgrid distribution network (Sydney/Newcastle/Hunter Valley region)
• $2,353 in NSW Endeavour distribution network (Wollongong/Lithgow down to Ulladulla)
• $2,515 in NSW Essential distribution network (rest of NSW)
• $1,927 in QLD’s Energex distribution network (SE QLD)
• $2,270 to $2,344 in South Australia’s SA Power Networks distribution network (South Australia)

A Solar Sharer Offer (SSO) will also be introduced from 1 July for retailers with more than 1,000 customers. The opt-in offer will include three hours of free power during the day, which will run between 11am and 2pm in South East Queensland and 12pm and 3pm in South Australia.

The ESC predicts the following changes in average annual Victorian Default Offer bills for domestic customers on flat tariffs:

• -$45 (2%) in Ausnet distribution zone (new price proposal: $1,893)
• -$46 (3%) in Citipower distribution zone (new price proposal: $1,500)
• -$46 (3%) in Jemena distribution zone (new price proposal: $1,592)
• -$48 (3%) in Powercor distribution zone (new price proposal $1,655)
• -$43 (3%) in United Energy distribution zone (new price proposal $1,536)

Around 2.5 million Australian households pay more than they need to for their electricity because they’re on or above default offers, according to recent ACCC data. Customers who stick with the same retailer for three or more years fork out $221 more annually than those on new plans.

“Far too many Australians are paying more than they need to for electricity when there are often more competitive plans available,” Mr Koch said. “One of the easiest ways to know if you’re throwing your money down the gurgler is to check the ‘better offer’ message on your electricity bill. It’ll tell you right away if your retailer can offer a cheaper plan. If they can, chances are there are even better deals available elsewhere.”

Amid potential price changes, Mr Koch said there were several things to check when comparing your electricity bills.

Don’t overlook supply charges
These fees can vary widely and may be higher than those of other retailers offering similar usage rates. Make sure you compare both usage and supply costs.

Understand your tariff type
Tariffs differ between households. Time‑of‑use tariffs charge different rates depending on the time of day, while single‑rate tariffs charge the same price at all times. Some customers may also have demand tariffs, which add extra charges based on how much energy you use during periods of high demand.

Check your solar feed‑in tariff
The rate you’re paid for exporting solar energy to the grid varies by retailer. In Victoria, minimum feed‑in tariffs change each year on 1 July. Compare what you earn from solar exports with what you use from the grid. Solar feed-in tariffs have been decreasing for some time and now some retailers charge you for exporting electricity during off‑peak times, while offering higher rates during peak periods.

Review your energy plan regularly
If it’s been more than a year since you last switched plans or retailers, it’s worth comparing your options again. Discounts may have expired, your rates may have increased or there may simply be better deals available. Even plans from the same retailer can have different prices.